Can carbon neutrality be bought with money? The paradox of forests and the economy
Updated by Yasunao Kobayashi on July 04, 2025, 4:29 PM JST
Yasuhisa KOBAYASHI
Alpha Forum, Inc.
President of Alpha Forum, Inc. and Steering Committee Member of the Platinum Forest Industry Initiative. Ltd. in 2001, taking advantage of the company's venture support program. In September 2023, he received the Wood Use System Research Association Award.
Before we get into forestry, wood processing, and wood use, there is something to consider: the policy toward carbon neutrality by 2050. According to the Ministry of the Environment's website, the entire supply chain should move toward virtually zero carbon dioxide emissions (Scope 3) in detail. If it is not enough, carbon offsets (carbon dioxide emissions trading) should be done. If it is not enough, carbon offsetting (carbon dioxide emission rights trading) should be used, or technologies such as CCS and CCUS should be used.
First, the proven absorbers of carbon dioxide are forests and oceans. Although the figures vary depending on the method of measurement and other definitions, the entire planet has an absorption capacity of approximately 5 billion tons (according to an IPCC report). The forests absorb 2.7 billion tons and the oceans 2.3 billion tons. Emissions are close to 8 billion tons, which means that the concentration of carbon dioxide will increase. Since the earth is a closed reactor, driving a car and emitting exhaust gases, chemically called infinite dilution, is an act in a closed environment, so we are responsible for it.
While it is essential to halve current CO2 emissions in all economic activities, we must also recognize that the power of forests and oceans on the absorbing side is rapidly declining. There are reports that warming will also release large amounts of methane from the permafrost.
Now, Scope 3, even if the entire supply chain does its best to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, if it is not able to do so in time, carbon offsets or carbon credits should be purchased to balance the emission reductions. In my personal opinion, I do not believe in CCS or CCUS without a track record of control and management. I think it is very dangerous to rely on them.
For money in a credit economy, let us assume, for example, that the market capitalization of TSE Prime is 717 trillion yen. The Nikkei Stock Average is about 4,000 yen, and a 200 yen increase in the average stock price ≈ 0.5% is equivalent to the creation of 3.585 trillion yen in money. Of course, conversely, when the average stock price falls by 200 yen, almost the same amount of money disappears, which is why 95% of money is created in the imaginary world.
Can we match money, which may increase at any rate, with the function of the earth's outer skin, which does not increase? I do not believe that a capitalist economy based on popularity contests can solve carbon neutrality. It is nice to know that forests are likely to be popular, but it is not something that can be solved by any amount of increasing money. People should recognize this paradox.
Globalization has created the illusion that money is everything. It is time to reaffirm the bounty of the region in which we each live and to fundamentally rethink cross-regional trade and transportation. Forest values are at the center of this process. Can people living in Tokyo and other metropolitan areas go carbon neutral in their regions if they pay huge amounts of money? I am not the only one who feels vaguely uneasy about the "potato gruel" called money.
It's hot again this year, but looking back 10 years from now, we may say, "The summer of 2025 was cool..." Ten years from now, we want to feel the new forest culture in each region. (Yasunao Kobayashi, President, Alpha Forum, Inc. and Steering Committee Member, Platinum Forest Industry Initiative)
The "Forest Circular Economy" is the key to regional development and a decarbonized society. We will hold a webinar "Creating the Future through Forest Circulation" to introduce the forefront of this concept. The speakers will be 10 practitioners from industry, government, and academia, including Yasunao Kobayashi. They will discuss the transformation brought about by the utilization of forest resources, including advanced case studies from across Japan.
Date: Thursday, July 10, 2025, 13:00-17:00
Format: Online (free of charge, registration required)
*It is also possible to watch only specific sessions.
Platinum Initiative Network and Platinum Forest Industry Initiative "Forest Circular Economy" Editorial Department
● For details and application, click here.
